Most Americans are confident their local government will run fair and accurate elections in November, even as a majority express concerns about the potential for voter fraud or foreign interference, according to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
More than three-quarters of Americans – including the vast majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents – say they are very confident or confident in the process next month, while 24 percent are not confident in state and local governments to run fair elections.
Although multiple reports from election officials and media organizations have shown voter fraud is incredibly rare, former President Donald Trump's warnings about cheating in the upcoming election have become pervasive among his supporters.
READ MORE: This small sliver of late-deciders could swing the election
In this latest poll, 88 percent of likely Trump voters are worried that people who are ineligible to vote will cast ballots or that people will vote more than once. Fifty-eight percent of Americans – and fewer than a third of people who support Vice President Kamala Harris – share those concerns.
While there may be some minor irregularities during an election with more than 150 million ballots cast, widespread fraud should not be a concern for voters, said Nate Persily, an election law expert and professor at Stanford Law School.
An Associated Press review of the six battleground states Trump disputed in the 2020 presidential election found no more than 475 potential cases of voter fraud, which would not have changed the result in any state.
Allegations of fraud from the Trump campaign after the 2020 election led to more than 60 lawsuits to challenge the process, Persily noted. "They didn't find anything of significance," he said.
Graphic by Vanessa Dennis/ PBS News
Part of the challenge right now is "that there are claims being made that have enough truth in them to make them sound potentially reasonable," said Tammy Patrick, CEO for programs at the National Association of Election Officials and a former election official in Maricopa County, Arizona. "That's the sign of a good snake oil salesperson … you have enough information to cast doubt or to draw conclusions that are not supported."
The burden falls on both candidates and election workers to push back against unwarranted claims of fraud that seek to undermine election integrity, she said.
"There are going to be some people who will not believe in the outcome of the race … unless and until their candidate tells them that it was legitimate," Patrick said. "All across the country, our elections are conducted by election professionals in every state, and they are all committed to making sure that their elections are secure, they're transparent, they're legitimate."
An overwhelming majority of Trump supporters (85 percent) also expressed concern in this poll that people who are not U.S. citizens will be allowed to vote for president in November. Noncitizen voting is very rare already, Persily said. It is illegal in federal elections and violators could face fines, prison time and deportation.
Republican majorities in several state legislatures have fueled concerns this election cycle about noncitizens voting, and eight states will vote on ballot measures prohibiting it in November.
Two-thirds of Americans are also worried that foreign countries will interfere with this year's elections, according to the poll.
Continued shifts in how people vote
The election is already well underway in states where early voting has begun and ballots have been sent out by mail. According to the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, 49 percent of registered voters say they will vote either by mail-in/absentee ballot or at an early voting location. Another 49 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day.
POLL: These issues are driving voters right now
Voter habits have shifted over the past three decades, contributing to an acceleration of the campaign cycle. The number of people opting to vote before Election Day grew from fewer than 10 percent in 1992 to nearly 40 percent in 2016, according to analysis of census data by the UF Election Lab. That figure spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when nearly 70 percent of people voted early by mail or in person.
A sign highlights efforts to sign up voters at the Bayfront Convention Center before a campaign rally for Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump on September 29, 2024. in Erie, Pennsylvania. Photo by Jeff Swensen/ Getty Images
This year, 25 percent of likely voters plan to cast their ballot at an early voting location, while 25 percent say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.
As mail-in voting grows in prominence, more than two-thirds of Americans express confidence in the ability of the U.S. Postal Service to deliver election-related mail on time this year. While Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has pledged "heroic efforts" to ensure the timely delivery of millions of mail-in ballots, The American Postal Workers Union raised concerns this week about staffing and readiness for the election.
When and how people choose to vote has become more politicized as Trump continues to suggest without evidence that voting by mail leads to increased fraud. That message seems to have sunk in among his supporters, with 58 percent of likely Trump voters saying in the latest poll that they will show up in person on Election Day. Only 16 percent of Trump supporters say they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot while a third of Harris supporters say the same.
Different states count and release results from early and same-day voting at different times, which means sometimes a candidate who is ahead on Election Day may see his or her lead shrink as early votes are counted and added to the tally.
Concerns about voting methods and shifting tallies throughout election night could create further opportunities to sow confusion and doubt as votes begin to be counted, Persily said. This could also lead to more lawsuits when voting is finished, he added.
"People are just extremely anxious right now. And the campaign is not helping any," Persily said. "It is not helping matters because the legitimacy of the system is under assault from people with the loudest megaphones."
— Vivian Hoang contributed reporting.
PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on Sept. 27 through Oct. 1 that polled 1,628 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 1,514 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, and 1,294 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.