Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Harris’ convention bump and if Trump will debate

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• Amna Nawaz:

  There are just 70 days left until Election Day, and the campaigns are ramping into high gear. That means there's a lot to break down this week in politics.

  And, for that, we're joined by our Politics Monday duo. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

  Good to see you both.

• Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

  Hello.

• Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

  Good to be here.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So, one week after the convention, the Democratic National Convention, Amy, as you all know, sometimes candidates get what we call a post-convention bounce. This is a weird year, though, so are we seeing that or do we expect to see that for Kamala Harris?

• Amy Walter:

  That's a really good question, because, unlike any other election we have ever seen before, where the candidate really just came onto the scene less than a month before the convention, she got a lot of that bump before we even got to Chicago with the base then rallying around her.

  But, look, she's had the wind at her back, so to speak, for the last, well, really, since she's been in this race, and it hasn't abetted. In fact, if anything, the convention really just, I think, crystallized the kind of momentum that she's been able to sustain for the last month.

  And you have Democrats leaving Chicago, but also you're feeling it around the rest of the country, more enthusiastic and energized than they have been at any point this year, and I could argue maybe for the last two years.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• Amy Walter:

  So she may get something of a little bit of a bump out of that.

  But, overall, I think this is the real question going forward. And this is what Trump is trying desperately to stop is that she has been able to basically control the narrative of this campaign on the terms that she wants to talk about, whether it's on issues — the issues, like abortion, or putting the economy, the economic question in terms that work for her.

  And most important, she's been able to, even as the incumbent, grab the change candidate. So people are upset with the status quo. She's part of the status quo, but she's somehow managed to also be the person who's turning the page.

  If you're Donald Trump, you have got to find a way to blunt that.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So if you're Donald Trump right now, Tam — and just broaden this out to both campaigns for us.

• Tamara Keith:

  Yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  This is a condensed timeline now, 70 days left here. You have got a new ticket late in the cycle on the Democratic side. What are we seeing from the campaigns at this stage that tells us what the priorities are, what the strategies are for this home stretch?

• Tamara Keith:

  Trump's campaign did put out a memo over the weekend saying, there's going to be a bump. Harris is going to see her numbers rise. Don't worry. It'll go away. Everybody sees this and it goes away.

  And it's not clear because this is such a tight schedule what is going to happen, but what I do know is that Trump is campaigning like he's losing. And what I mean by that is, he is doing a lot of events. He's doing a bunch of different types of events. He is doing everything he can to wrest attention away from Harris.

  So, today, what that meant is, he went to Arlington Cemetery in — outside of Washington, D.C. Then he went to a Vietnamese restaurant in Northern Virginia campaigning with a Senate candidate, doing these sort of small retail type events. That's not something he's typically done.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• Tamara Keith:

  So, is he is doing everything he can to get attention.

  Harris, on the other hand, is going to have a bus tour this week through Georgia. And what's interesting about that, it's the same strategy that they employed in Pennsylvania, which is to say that Atlanta is not Georgia, that the state has many other areas, rural areas where there are Democratic voters. They may be outnumbered, but they could still hear from the candidate and they could sort of reduce their losses in some of those areas.

  So she's doing a bus tour. It's not just big rallies, but that both campaigns are running like it's a real race, because it is a real race.

• Amy Walter:

  Absolutely.

• Amna Nawaz:

  And there's another factor that could have an impact in this race that we know will be one on the margins. That was Friday's announcement of Robert F. Kennedy saying he's suspending his campaign and endorsing Donald Trump.

  Amy, as you have shown us, we already saw his support drop after Harris became the nominee.

• Amy Walter:

  That's right.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Half of his supporters went to her. But his endorsement of Trump means what? Do the other half go to Trump?

• Amy Walter:

  That's right.

  Well, that's the really big question. So it's true. Before Biden dropped out of this race, just overall on average national vote about 8 percent of voters said they were voting for RFK Jr. By the time, by today, it's now down to half of that. So you're right. Most of those went to Harris.

  What's happening now, at least in surveys that we did a couple of weeks back, looking just at the battleground states, those voters who remain Kennedy supporters, if you push them on the question, reallocate them, say, all right, if you had to, who would you support, you can see that almost half of them say that they are Trump supporters.

  Now, do they show up, number one, right, or do they stay home because they are sitting there because they really liked RFK and they're disappointed and maybe now they don't show up for Trump? If they do show up for Trump, and especially if they show — if those undecided voters — there are still significant numbers said they're undecided.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• Amy Walter:

  If they combine, show up for Trump as well, you're talking about movement of a point or so or a little under a point. It doesn't look big, but when we have had the last two elections decided by 10,000 votes here and 15,000 votes there, if I'm the Trump campaign, I would be ready to try to bring those people back into my camp.

• Amna Nawaz:

  And if you're the Harris campaign, as we saw, Harris/Walz campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon put out a statement after RFK Jr. dropped out, basically saying Vice President Harris wants to earn their support, also saying this: "For any American out there who's tired of Donald Trump and looking for a new way forward, ours is a campaign for you."

  Are those voters winnable by Harris? What's their best argument here?

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, part of that is just signaling that they take no vote for granted.

  And, actually, a big part of that is signaling that, because, as we have been saying, this is an incredibly close race. It will, in all likelihood, continue to be a very close race. And they can't look like they're just writing off a group of voters.

  So, sure, they could go nuclear on all of RFK Jr.'s many liabilities and try to tie those to Trump, and they will do that too. But this was sort of the conciliatory thing that you would expect, saying, we're a big tent. Look at the convention. They had all these Republicans for Trump. Today, they announced another something like 200 Republicans for Trump.

  They are building a stable of people who they hope will create a permission structure for people who feel uncomfortable with Trump to vote for Harris. That's not the major thrust of the campaign, but it's just one of the many angles.

  They're trying to scoop up little bits of voters.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amy Walter:

  And it's a reminder that the Democratic coalition since Biden has really been one of bringing in voters who say, I don't know that I could really vote for Donald Trump to say, come on in, we are now part of that anti-Trump party. We're the anti-Trump party.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amna Nawaz:

  Meanwhile, you heard Lisa report earlier as well that there is another debate scheduled. This time, it would be between Vice President Harris and former President Trump for later in September.

  Mr. Trump is now casting doubt on whether he will actually take part in it. So I have to ask, do you think it's going to happen? And does it make an impact?

• Amy Walter:

  Yes. Yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  In what way?

• Amy Walter:

  I mean, to Tam's point, this is now a place where Donald Trump needs to change the direction of this campaign and the momentum of this campaign.

  Back in June, it was Biden who wanted that debate, because he knew he was running behind. Now it's Trump who wants to change the focus. And, listen, ever since Harris got into this race, the Trump campaign has been very adamant, saying, look, she hasn't been tested yet. She hasn't been pushed yet. She hasn't sat down for an interview yet. She hasn't had to make any specifics yet.

  Let's see if she's able — how she's able to do once she gets under the hot lights of having to answer a question that's not on a teleprompter, that's not scripted.

• Tamara Keith:

  Yes, she has been conducting a one-way conversation with the American people. It has not been a two-way conversation. She hasn't been pressed.

  And so a debate is an opportunity. This interview that she has promised she will do by the end of August, and the end of August is soon, that will also be a two-way conversation. And the Harris campaign clearly seems to want this debate to happen. But they also are, I think, enjoying, I could say, getting under Trump's skin about it.

• Amna Nawaz:

  What do you mean by that?

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, implying that, well, his handlers don't want him to have the open mic. He wants the mic shut down. And so then Trump gets asked about it, and he's like, oh, no, I'd be perfectly happy with the mics being open.

  And then that sort of blows up the negotiations in the behind-the-scenes debate about the debate.

• Amna Nawaz:

  I feel like we will continue to have the debate about the debate until the debate actually happens.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amna Nawaz:

  Tamara Keith of NPR, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report, always great to see you both. Thank you so much.

• Amy Walter:

  You're welcome.