In the closing weeks of the presidential campaign, voters are most likely to list the economy and preserving democracy as critical factors in their vote decisions, according to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
Nearly every voter is considering the state of the economy, the poll found. Ninety-five percent say it will be a factor for them in choosing how to cast their ballot, including 59 percent who say it is a deciding factor and 36 percent who say it is an important factor. About three-quarters of Republicans say it is a deciding factor, compared to 42 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of independents.
Economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy is stable, as inflation continues to subside and the chance of recession is low for now. In the most recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index grew 2.5 percent year-over-year in August, which was a factor in the Federal Reserve decision last month to cut interest rates for the first time in four years.
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Yet a plurality of Americans (40 percent) in this poll say the economy is in poor condition. Another 28 percent say it is fair. Overall, fewer than a third of Americans say the economy is in good or excellent shape, suggesting Americans' personal financial situations continue to be a concern.
Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris pledged to help the middle class in a speech focused on her economic vision at The Economic Club of Pittsburgh on Sept. 25, 2024. Photo by Kevin Lamarque/ Reuters
With so many voters focused on the economy, unhappiness on the issue should be a "key warning sign" for the Harris campaign, said Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who was an adviser to Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. The vice president should be worried about having enough time to turn around those perceptions, he added.
"Did those [economic] trend lines start to change or start to tick up where it's just slightly too late? Because most people's views about the economy are pretty dug in [from] probably three months ago," Madden said.
The economy is an issue Harris should be talking about more, including explaining how she will help people, Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir said. Trump was seen by a small majority of Americans as better equipped to handle the economy in last month's PBS News/NPR/Marist survey.
Trump has tried to outflank Harris with a series of populist policy proposals, including eliminating taxes on tips, which both candidates have endorsed but experts say won't help workers significantly. Trump has also suggested social security benefits and overtime pay should be tax-exempt, though he admitted at a recent Pennsylvania campaign rally that he hated paying overtime as an employer and took steps to avoid it.
Trump "can't be believed" when he says he'll fight for working-class people because in his first term in the White House he did more to "cater to powerful actors," Shakir said.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans also say preserving democracy is a deciding factor in their vote for president, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents. Another quarter say it is an important factor.
On the campaign trail, Democratic and Republican candidates frame threats to democracy in sharply different terms. The Harris campaign has repeatedly criticized Trump for continuing to promote baseless claims that the 2020 presidential election, won by President Joe Biden, was rigged.
During Tuesday's vice presidential debate, Democratic nominee Tim Walz asked his Republican opponent JD Vance whether Trump lost the last election and criticized the Ohio senator's "damning non-answer" when Vance replied that he was "focused on the future."
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Trump blamed the second assisination attempt on his life last month on Democrats who labeled him a threat to democracy. He has also turned around the attack on Biden and Harris. "They are the real threat," he said.
Immigration remains a hot-button topic on the campaign trail and for registered voters in this poll, with 44 percent saying it will be a deciding factor in their vote. Another 43 percent say it is an important factor as they weigh their choices.
Yard signs are offered to supporters as they arrive for a campaign event with Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance on Sept. 25, 2024, in Traverse City, Michigan. Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images
Both campaigns have put immigration front and center. Harris visited the U.S.-Mexico border for the first time in three years last Friday, as this poll was being conducted. Republicans have criticized the Biden administration for a surge in border crossings at the end of last year, but encounters have slowed significantly after the president signed an executive order in June placing new restrictions on asylum claims. Border Patrol recorded about 58,000 encounters between ports of entry on the southern border in August, a record one-month decline and one of the lowest levels since 2020.
In recent weeks, Trump and Vance have whipped up a political storm around Springfield, Ohio, by repeating false claims that Haitian immigrants were eating cats and dogs stolen from their neighbors. The influx of migrants, who the city says are there legally, has strained some resources in the city, but local Republican officials say there are no credible reports of pets being harmed. The attention has led to dozens of bomb threats.
Many Haitian migrants are in the United States legally under temporary protected status, but Trump said in an interview Wednesday he would revoke their right to live in the U.S.
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In the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, 57 percent of U.S. adults say America's openness to people from the world is essential to the country's identity. Forty-one percent believe if America is too open to outsiders that it will lose its national identity. Democrats overwhelmingly (82 percent) support openness, while Republicans overwhelmingly (72 percent) worry about it.
Abortion has been key to Democratic electoral victories since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago. With a month until Election Day, it is once again a key motivator. Sixty-two percent of Democrats say it is a deciding factor in their votes this year. The same is true for 44 percent of Americans overall, including a majority of women, a key part of the Harris coalition.
Republicans, who spent decades focused on overturning Roe, have shifted considerably on the issue. About a quarter of GOP voters say abortion is not a factor in their vote. Trump has previously claimed credit for appointing the conservative justices who overturned Roe, but in recent weeks has softened his rhetoric on the issue, telling people at a rally in Pennsylvania last week that women will "no longer be thinking about abortion" if he is elected.
Vivian Hoang contributed reporting.
PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on Sept. 27 through Oct. 1 that polled 1,628 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 1,514 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, and 1,294 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.